Thursday, March 18, 2010

The Unspoken Authority

With all the tension going on between China and the U.S capturing mainstream media attention, I am just waiting for a good showdown at the MGM Grand. Yet with so many issues circling around China, the central theme seems to be about one subject; the revaluation of the yuan. The U.S, the E.U, and the World Bank have all stated the yuan remains undervalued. Words such as "currency manipulation" and "protectionism" are mere silhouettes beneath political tides that remain elusive yet ready to strike against eachother. Even the recent anti-dumping investigations and penalties against Chinese exports by 19 countries, including the U.S appear to me as a form of back door revaluation while China remained equivocally resolute. Beijing repeated its resolve against what they call "western coercion" while Washington seems to be the spokesperson for all nations that feels the yuan's undervalue is hurting their own economic recovery. Meanwhile, speculating investor capital continue its massive inflow into China as the world watches the ball being passed back and forth.

Recently, Chinese central bankers hinted the possibility to begin re-evaluating the yuan became headline news. Chinese premier Wen Jiabao quickly rebuked the earlier statement stating a stabilized yuan policy "could not be clearer" and the yuan "is not undervalued". Could this be a sign of political rift within China's single ruling party between the hardliners and those pro-west? Rarely do we see Beijing this ambivalent with its statements when ambiguity will suffice. Perhaps the united rally of 19 countries threatening to impose over 240 anti-dumping duties against China is shaking its confidence, if even just a little bit. What interests me is that although Chinese premier Wen Jiabo is an identifiable leader, the actual party affiliated commander in chief, thus the final authority of the middle kingdom has remained quite silent amidst all the fireworks. While President Barack Obama has made the U.S's stance quite clear in international media. President Hu Jingtao, however is still holding onto his wild card, and waiting to see which way the wind blows hardest.

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